Brand share winners and the extent of consumer inertia

In addition to the latest FMCG trends from around the world, last week we looked at consumer inertia in relation to brand share losses. This showed that if a brand loses share, there is a 66% probability that the loss lasts 10 years.

This week we look at brand share winners and the extent to which consumer inertia leads to a lasting share gain. We also compare these brand benchmarks with Private Label.

1. For brand share winners, there is a 76% chance that share is still up next year, 62% in 5 years’ time and 60% in 10 years – so not quite as high as the lost share probabilities.
2. The average volume share increase is 10% and this level is retained in the long term.
3. For Private Labels, consumer inertia leads to an even higher chance than brands of share gains being kept – 70% probability even after 10 years. It also shows that losses are more likely to be reversed than brands – with 50% returning to growth after 10 years.
4. Our latest summary of FMCG trends is updated from last week to include pre-lockdown from parts of the Middle East & Africa and the latest weeks in Latam. In general, growth post-lockdown continues although this can vary by country due to local circumstances – from some decline making up for the pre-lockdown stock up, to significant continued growth. Larger basket sizes and fewer shopping trips remain the key behaviours.
5. Pre and post-lockdown trends in Spain and Belgium continue to show significant overall growth.