Total CPG Volume Trends 2007 to 2025
Global volume growth – Europe stable and back to pre-covid levels – USA decline linked to more out-of-home
More uncertainty leads to higher in-home consumption
The current global unrest and impact on oil prices is leading to concerns about inflation and the effect on CPG volumes. The long-term trends show that periods of uncertainty lead to higher in-home grocery purchasing as out-of-home and other non-essential purchases are cut.
Half of the market in volume growth
Over Covid-19 and the subsequent period of very high inflation, categories worth half of the grocery market were still up in volume. Price, at category level, does not seem to be a factor and correlation between volume and price changes across categories is low.
Category growth driven by appeal, not price
Categories in growth vs decline are generally linked to consumer trends like convenience and health (e.g., protein) or beauty regimes in Personal Care or efficiency concerns in Household Care. Category price changes are not systematically linked to volume growth.
First video of Consumer Pulse: the Crisis Series
Richard Herbert interviews Oliver Koll (Professor of Marketing, University of Innsbruck), who shares his perspective on long-term volume growth trends shaping FMCG, how economic downturns and price increases ripple through to volume growth, and which categories have pulled ahead and which have struggled through recent turbulence.
